Introduction to Probability - Block G

Our next unit is my personal favorite - Probability.  This is a unit where we get to explore "how likely" is something to happen.  This is a great skill to have in anybody's decision making skill set.

First of all, let's start by playing a game.  The rules are very simple:

• Predict what you will pick out of the bag.
• If you are correct, you win
• Questions???

Next, let's get a sense of what you will be doing in this unit.  Take a look at the "I Can..." statements.  On the scale above each statement, place a mark to indicate how well you think you can do each of the unit objectives.  Remember that this is the beginning of the unit so I am not expecting you to be an expert.

Now...let's get some basic probability language down.  Take a look at this video and complete the note-taking sheet that you have been provided with.

Here are some key words that you should be able to use next class:

• Event
• Outcome
• Certain
• Impossible
• Likely
• Unlikely
• Theoretical Probability
• Experimental Probability

What does it mean if outcomes are "Equally Likely"?

If two or more outcomes are "equally likely", it means that they have an equal chance of occurring.  Think about the game we just played.  Each block had an equally likely chance of being picked, but that didn't necessarily mean that each color had an "equally likely" chance of being picked.

Take a look at the spinners below and see if you can decide which one has "equally likely" outcomes.  Be prepared to justify your answer:

 

Now let's look at a variety of other events.  For each event, list all of the possible outcomes (if this hasn't already been done for you) and then decide whether the outcomes are all "equally likely" to occur.

As you can see, this can get a little bit tricky.

Now let's Practice

I have included a link to a Khan Academy activity that addresses the same things that are discussed in the video above.  You need to complete this before next class: Understanding Probability

Before next class you MUST have completed the following:

• Self assess your current level of understanding of each "I can..." statement
• Watch the "What is Probability" video and complete the note-taker page.
• Pass the first level of the "Understanding Probability" exercise on Khan Academy
• ACE (11-18) p. 19
• ACE (26-29) p. 23