Choosing Cereal

Focus Questions: 

• How does collecting more data helps you to predict the outcome of a probability situation?
• How can we use the results of a probability experiment to determine the "relative frequency" of an outcome?
• How does running a probability experiment help you determine how many possible outcomes there are as well as the likelihood of each outcome?

Kalvin would prefer to eat Cocoa Blast cereal for breakfast everyday.  His parents would prefer that he eats Health Nut Flakes.  In order to decide, his mother allows Kalvin to design a probability experiment.

Option 1: Flipping Coins

Kalvin will flip a coin.  If the results are heads, he will eat Cocoa Blast.  If the results are tails, he will eat Health Nut Flakes.

1. To run this experiment we will use our integer counters.  With your partner, designate one color to be "Heads" and the other color to be "Tails".  Make a note of your legend at the top of the table.
2. After you have completed your experiment, fill out this online form to contribute your data to our class data.
3. Here are the class results:
   
   
   RED = HEADS and BLUE = TAILS

Option 2: Tossing Cups

Kalvin will toss a cup.  If the cup lands on either end, he will eat Cocoa Blast.  If the cup lands on its side, he will eat Health Nut Flakes.

• Run your experiment 20 times.  Record the results in your table.  Please remember to treat the cups kindly as they need to be used in multiple classes.
• After you have completed your experiment, fill out this online form to contribute to the class data.  Here are the results of the class data:

Option 3: Matching Coins

Kalvin will toss two coins.  If the coins match, he will eat Cocoa Blast.  If the coins do NOT match he will eat Health Nut Flakes.

1. Run your experiment 30 times.  Record the results in your table.  Remember to use the "shake and drop" strategy.  
2. After you have completed your experiment, fill out this online form to contribute to the class data.  Here are the results of the class data:

At the end of this Problem you should be able to do the following:

• Describe how the accuracy of a probability experiment is influenced by the amount of data collected.
• Describe the difference between the probability of each outcome for an event and the relative frequency of each outcome for a probability experiment.
• Use the results of a probability experiment in order to predict the likelihood of each outcome.
• Extend the results of a probability experiment in order to predict the results of a similar probability experiment.

Here is what you MUST do before next class:

• Complete all of the questions on the handout.
• ACE (3, 6, 8, 10)
• Khan Academy: Simple Probability and Experimental Probability