How can we use a probability simulation to make predictions?
Part 1: Looking At Spinners
Part 2: Analyzing a Spinner
Kalvin decides to use the spinner shown below:
- What is the theoretical probability that the spinner will land on each time?
- Based on the theoretical probabilities, if Kalvin spins the spinner 64 times, about how many times can he expect to go to bed at each time? Explain. Why do you think I chose 64 times?
Part 3: Testing the Spinner
- Go to the following website: Spinner Site (you will probably need to use Firefox or Safari)
- Click on "Change Spinner"
- Design your spinner.
- What was the experimental probability that the spinner landed on each time?
- How many times did you "spin" the spinner? How did you decide that you had enough trials?
- How do your experimental results compare to your theoretical probabilities?
Part 4: Designing a New Spinner
Pretend that you are Kalvin's father. Design a new spinner where it is "most likely" that Kalvin will go to bed at 9:00. Your spinner must have at least three different times and four different sections.
- Test your spinner to be sure that it meets the criteria.
- Take a screen shot and post it on your blog along with the theoretical probability of Kalvin going to bed at each time.
Scratching Spots:
- How might we design a simulation to test the probability of winning this contest?
- Try to use one of the probability tools to design a simulation for this situation. Be prepared to share your idea with others.
- Based on your simulation, what is the experimental probability of winning this game?
- Build a sample space to try and determine the theoretical probability of winning this game?
- Is it worth it to spend $1000 at Tawanda's Toys to try and win video games? Explain.
Homework:
- Design a Spinner Challenge Task
- ACE (13,14)
- Complete these Khan Academy activities:
Probability 1
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